Risk Disclosure

Last updated: March 30, 2026

1. Nature of Prediction Market Trading

Prediction markets are financial instruments where participants trade contracts based on the outcomes of real-world events. The value of these contracts fluctuates based on market participants' collective assessment of the probability of an outcome occurring. Like all financial markets, prediction markets can move against your position quickly and unpredictably.

2. No Guarantee of Returns

Ruby has demonstrated positive paper-trading results — a 76.7% win rate across 30 closed Ruby paper trades and +134% paper growth from a $1,000 paper start to $2,344. However:

• Paper trading results are simulated and do not involve real money
• Past performance of any trading strategy does not guarantee future results
• Market conditions change, and strategies that perform well historically may underperform in the future
• There is no guarantee that any specific win rate or return will be achieved
• You could lose your entire account balance

3. Algorithmic Trading Risks

Automated algorithmic trading carries specific risks beyond manual trading:

• Technical failures: Software bugs, network outages, or API failures may cause missed trades, duplicate trades, or failure to exit losing positions
• Overfitting: Algorithms may be optimized for historical data in ways that don't generalize to future market conditions
• Flash crashes: Automated systems can react to sudden market dislocations in unexpected ways
• Connectivity risk: Loss of connection between KalshiEdge and your trading platform may result in open positions not being managed
• Latency: Delays in order execution may result in fills at prices different from those intended

4. Platform and Regulatory Risks

KalshiEdge connects to third-party prediction market platforms including Kalshi. Risks include:

• Platform outages, maintenance windows, or permanent closure
• Changes to platform APIs that break KalshiEdge functionality
• Regulatory action affecting platform operations or your ability to trade
• Platform insolvency or inability to return funds
• For additional markets specifically: ongoing regulatory uncertainty for US users

KalshiEdge has no control over the operation, solvency, or regulatory compliance of third-party platforms. Your funds are held by those platforms, not by KalshiEdge.

5. Position Sizing and Drawdown Risk

Different KalshiEdge risk tiers use different position sizes as a percentage of your account balance:

• Conservative (2–5%): Lower individual trade risk, slower drawdowns, slower returns
• Moderate (5–15%): Meaningful per-trade exposure; a single loss can impact your balance noticeably
• Max (15% default): Larger trade caps can increase drawdowns; selecting 20% sizing requires explicit high-risk acknowledgement

You should only use the Aggressive tier if you fully understand and accept the possibility of rapid, large drawdowns.

6. Not Investment Advice

KalshiEdge is a software tool. We are not registered as an investment advisor, broker-dealer, commodity trading advisor, or in any other regulated financial capacity with the SEC, CFTC, FINRA, or any other regulatory body. Nothing KalshiEdge provides — including algorithm outputs, signals, win rates, or performance data — constitutes investment advice, a recommendation to trade, or an offer to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions.

7. Tax Considerations

Gains from prediction market trading may be subject to income tax, capital gains tax, or other taxes in your jurisdiction. The tax treatment of prediction market winnings in the United States is unsettled — the IRS has not issued formal guidance. You are responsible for understanding and complying with your tax obligations. Consult a qualified tax professional.

8. Suitability

Prediction market trading and algorithmic trading are not suitable for everyone. Before using KalshiEdge, you should honestly assess:

• Whether you can afford to lose the funds you intend to trade with
• Your experience with and understanding of financial markets
• Your ability to monitor and respond to unexpected losses
• Whether trading is appropriate given your overall financial situation

9. Contact

Questions about this Risk Disclosure? Contact us at [email protected].